Case- Sillly be damned! Yes I know that is Case-Shiller, and according to Case- Shiller Charlotte home prices are off 4% since last summer. Really? Lets see if we can find that data in the MLS- should be pretty easy right? Just remember averages hide alot! And more than one person smarter than me question C-S methodology!!!
OH yes, I’ve also heard the national story that “Foreclosures are pushing home prices down!” I think this one will qualify as a half truth in Charlotte- some areas yes, some no, you decide!
In this post, I’m going to cover the summer results- May 1 through September 2, 2011, and compare to the same exact period in 2010. Also the number of sales, so we can look at volume and prices- prices are expressed as average SP/SF, or comparing year over year average sales price per square foot, make sense? I’ll do some zip codes today, then some cities in the next post. The income and growth figures are from the US Census 2010.
Well now, I ‘ve just run 5 zip codes and 4 look pretty good, and one- a disaster. Let’s look at these Charlotte home prices in detail.
According to the US Census, the following 5 zip codes are Charlotte’s most affluent. With the one notable exception, they’ve done quite well all in all. So, Summer of 2011 home sales compared to summer 2010, by zipcode. Remember averages hide a lot!
Ballantyne Home Sold Zip Code 28277
The ten year growth was 48% in this zip code and the average family income is $86,173 per family.
| 2010 | 2011 | Change | |
| # of Sales | 281 | 315 | +12% |
| avg SP/sf | 112 | 111 | -0.89% |
So Ballantyne real estate over all, grew in sales volume by 12% summer 2011 compared to 2010, and the average price per sf dropped .89%. less than 1. The average DOM or Days on market increased 2 days from 98 to 100- not significant, and average SP to List price, the average discount was 4%, the exact same in 2010 and 2011. Clearly, foreclosures and short sales are Not dominating the market here.
Myers Park Homes Sold Zip Code 28207
Ten year growth has see a 6% loss in population in Myers Park, the average income is $84, 232.
| 2010 | 2011 | Change | |
| # of Sales | 42 | 47 | +12% |
| avg SP/sf | 233 | 250 | +7.3% |
So Myers Park home sales have grown in the number of sales and in sales prices, a good combination. It is a true blue chip when it comes to houses- again not an area you are seeing a lot of short sales and foreclosures pushing home prices down.
South Charlotte Homes Sold Zip Code 28270
This zip code grew by 20% through 2010 and has an average income of $76,795. This is a popular area of Charlotte roughly bordered by Providence Road in the west, monroe Rd in the east, Rama (fairview) in the north, and Tilley-Morris/Mckee Rd in the south. The high schools are Myers Park, Providence and Ardrey kell and that explains part of its popularity, but its central location is very desirable as well
| 2010 | 2011 | Change | |
| # of Sales | 117 | 134 | +14.5% |
| avg SP/sf | 107 | 106 | -1.0% |
So Home sales way up, prices down just a bit. And you cna see another popular feature of South Charlotte ‘s 282 70, you get more home for your money!
Southwest Charlotte Zip Code 28278
Southwest Charlotte rew rapidly, by 65% and had an average income of $71,420. This is the area west of I-77 and goes from 485 to Lake Wylie. Of the five most affluent zip codes, this fell the furthest by far in price. Take a look.
| 2010 | 2011 | Change | |
| # of Sales | 119 | 119 | -0- |
| avg SP/sf | 92 | 77 | -16.3% |
Wow is all I can say- and yes I think foreclosures and shortsales played a huge role in forcing prices down here. There is no other explanation, except last up, first down.
South Charlotte Zip 28226
Popular 28226 saw a 12% increase in growth, with average incomes of $68, 636. Just south of Southpark, 28226 is adjacent to 28270, with Providence Rd on its East side, Carmel on its west, Rt 51 on it south, and around Fairview on its north. High schools include South Mecklenburg and Myers Park. The popular Charlotte Catholic is here as well.
| 2010 | 2011 | Change | |
| # of Sales | 42 | 47 | +12% |
| avg SP/sf | 233 | 250 | +7.3% |
So that’s the first look, and I think you can see what I was talking about… Case-Silly down 4%? Where? and the national story line? “Home prices falling due to foreclosures”… I am sure it is true in parts of Charlotte- and I’ll explore more areas in my next post- but clearly it is a half truth at best, half true perhaps in Charlotte, not at all true in Washington DC, San Francisco and a few others.
Charlotte will welcome you too- and we, the McDonald Group will help you get that great deal you need to feel comfortable about price.
Related Posts
Zillow- Why Case Shiller Doesn’t Cut It Deep discussion
CNBC- Cramer Why Case-Shiller Is Not Accurate ” The single most pessimistic and least accurate housing metric”
C-S Does Not Include MLS Data Single largest source of accurate data
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